This is Pakistan's brief national security analysis which the media and the analysts will not tell you.
Pakistan army suffered a severe loss this week when a convoy of security forces was targeted with a bomb, killing or wounding nearly 50 troops. Staggering loss for a nation already bleeding on multiple axis. A train was blown up in Punjab, electricity pylons were brought down in Frontier, gas pipelines was destroyed in Baluchistan and multiple targeted assassinations of media and political gangs were done on the streets of Karachi. This is no more 4th generation war but its higher and more deadly version of 5th generation war where a sustained level of low intensity conflict is designed to create a perpetual sense of fear and anarchy, imploding the state from within while the government remains confused, disoriented and indecisive in fear.
On the external threat axis, the government completely ignores the threats from India and US in Afghanistan and continues to offer generous concessions to both India and US, despite their active involvement in wars inside Pakistan. US is blaming Pakistan for their defeat in Afghanistan where a resurgent Taliban movement is delivering crushing blows to the occupation forces. US response is to punish Pakistan through support to insurgent gangs and sending in drones. US want to keep perpetually in a state of war and Indians are their primary assets in making sure that insurgent gangs remain active in Pakistan.
Within Pakistan, the courts and the Nawaz government remain focused on humiliating Musharraf, not trusting the reports of the army doctors on his health. Now a team of civilian doctors will be formed which would deliver the judgment which the government and courts want. Army is being brought under great stress by the government and the judiciary and the breaking point may not be too far away.
Now it is a full blown urban war in Pakistan and the staggering losses are now triggering the panic mode in the confused government. Nawaz Shareef seems to be an extremely unlucky man – third time! This is a dangerous trend which is not showing any signs of improvement. As the collapse rapidly catches pace within Pakistan, so does the panic but the response strategy from the government is nowhere to be seen. This makes the threat doubly dangerous.
Indians wait on the wings, keenly watching the collapse within the country, waiting for the right time to roll in. Perhaps sometimes in November this year. Nawaz Shareef is the best bet Indians could have in demolishing Pakistan. He is indeed doing a splendid job at it.
Ya Allah khair !!